W

hile working as a research specialist on China at the State Department, my colleagues and I knew that the best chance to influence the policy-makers was in the early stages of a new Administration — when they were willing briefly to admit they didn’t know everything. After writing general overviews of the situation in China, predicting changes in the next few years, for several administrations, we began to refer jokingly to such efforts as a “whither China?” exercise.

I tend to gravitate naturally to such “big picture” efforts to explain China to test my own assumptions. For too long, it was hard to find balanced analysis of China’s prospects. Most exaggerate either China’s growing strengths as an inevitable “threat” to U.S. interests, or its weaknesses and impending failure. A journal may publish the “two sides” in different issues; maybe they assume or hope a person will read both and come up with a balanced judgment? Even the best efforts tend to focus narrowly on economic, political and military factors, and ignore cultural and spiritual matters that are essential for a full picture.

There will be more and more media coverage of China leading up to the Beijing 2008 Olympics. How should we view the news? The first thing, clearly, is to look for “hype” — of either China’s pros or cons. Second, see whether they are looking at grass-roots change and the experience of the “average Zhou,” rural as well as urban, not just central government goals or what is going on in Beijing and Shanghai. Third, look for coverage of moral, cultural and spiritual issues.

Giant with Feet of Clay

When thinking about China’s future, I often recall the dream of Nebuchadnezzar about an “enormous, dazzling statue, awesome in appearance.” As interpreted by Daniel, the sections of the statue represented coming Kingdoms, but in my mind, the golden head is the Communist Party’s imagined glorious past and golden future under its leadership, as evidenced in the investors’ wealth pouring in, the grand building projects and national symbols such as the Centennial Alter in Beijing.

The chest and arms of silver are the economy, both strong (huge foreign reserves) and delicate (huge amounts of bad bank loans); the bronze belly and thighs are the middle class and non-profit sector associations in China’s emerging civil society. The two legs of iron holding up the statue are the military/security agencies and the Party and its ideology.

And when we closely inspect the feet and toes, we find Chinese culture to be made of “iron mixed with clay, partly strong and partly brittle…so the people will be a mixture and will not remain united any more than iron mixes with clay.” The CCP uses the iron of coercion to impose its state ideology of atheistic socialism, but popular disbelief, disdain and non-compliance render the effort futile. Herein lies the weakness of the whole enterprise of “China Inc.” — the absence of a shared public morality and the widespread spiritual vacuum. Official corruption and abuse of power undermine the legislative progress that has been made to build a rule of law; the public conscience needed to support it is lacking.

Salt and Light

Knowing God’s heart for social justice, and His anger with nations that continue to rebel against His order and leaders that oppress His people, I would tend to agree with predictions of some hard times to come. The “rock” in the dream, not cut out by human hands, which will smash the vulnerable base, becomes a huge mountain filling the whole earth — Christ and His Kingdom, to whom all nations will bow. “Jesus shall reign where’er the sun … Peoples and realms of ev’ry tongue…”

Political leaders in China have managed small crises one at a time despite weak legitimacy and public mistrust, so long as the economy does not falter. But they have not improved government accountability and provided moral leadership to the extent needed to ride out a major downturn in the economy, whether triggered in China or abroad, by financial crisis, global epidemic or military conflict. A recession could lead to prolonged stagnation such as Japan has experienced. A depression could lead to political turmoil between competing forces — populists blaming domestic corruption and waving the flag of democracy vs. authoritarian nationalists fueling a backlash against “Western globalization” as the scapegoat for China’s problems.

What is the hope for Chinese society to make it through a tough transition to a new equilibrium? God’s family, building on the Rock, is a growing presence among social and even political leaders in China’s cities and villages. While tiny in percentages of the total population, they could prove critical as opinion-shapers, peacemakers and problem-solvers in times of crisis. Like a bit of salt, they can help counter the moral rot; like a tiny beam of light, they can make a big difference in the utter darkness.

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